Energy Trade Reconfiguration in Central and Eastern Europe After the Russia–Ukraine War: Evidence From PPML and GAP Analysis

Abstract

This article analyses how the energy-related foreign trade structure of Central and Eastern European (CEE) EU Member States has evolved since the Russia–Ukraine war. The study focuses on the diversification of import sources and the geographic reorientation of exports, using detailed HS27 data at the HS4 level for eleven CEE countries. The empirical approach combines a Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood gravity model with a Supply-Gap Replacement Analysis to identify which partners substituted for lost imports from Russia and Belarus. A new indicator Re-Export Potential is also introduced to capture potential intra-regional energy flows and emerging distribution hubs.
The findings show a reduction of more than 99% in direct HS27 imports from Russia and Belarus after 2022 and a major reshaping of supply patterns. Norway, the Gulf states, the United States and North Africa became the main substitutes, while several Western European states acted as key transit and refining hubs. In contrast, CEE countries achieved only limited reorientation of their energy exports, reflecting higher production costs and constrained adjustment capacity after the loss of Russian crude.
The Re-Export Potential results point to new regional energy corridors in the Adriatic, Baltic and Black Sea regions. Overall, the study shows that the transformation of CEE energy trade is structural and likely to persist, reshaping the region’s role within Europe’s energy supply chains.