Multicountry and Regional Macroeconometric Models

Władysław Welfe

doi:10.2478/v10103-012-0042-6

Authors

Władysław Welfe University of Łódź

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.2478/v10103-012-0042-6

Abstract

Multicountry models were developed in the previous century to serve the analyses and projections of the world economy and/or its regions (for instance Latin America). They distinguish the largest countries and the rest of the world (ROW) composed of particular countries. Hence, their structure is based on the specifications of equations for individual countries using full statistical information available at the countries level. The regional macroeconomic models are built for either administrative or geographical units distinguished within large countries (USA, China, Russia). Their structure should be in principle similar to those of the national economy. However, the statistical information of the regional economies is typically uncomplete: no sufficient information is available on exports and imports of the region, migrations and financial flows. Appropriate approximations are necessary. As in majority of countries the prices and wages movements are in general unified over the country, the variables representing the national level excerpt an impact on the regional variables. The regional impact on the national variables is rather unusual. The paper shows the skeleton model applied in the multicountry models and the skeleton of the macroeconomic regional model. The specific properties of the regional model are discussed and the possibilities of its extensions analysed.

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