From Behind the Great Wall with (No) Strings Attached? Visegrád Group Vulnerabilities and Dependencies on Chinese Dual-Use Imports

Abstract

This paper examines the dependence of the Visegrád Group (V4) economies on imports of advanced dual-use goods from China. Using frameworks of international political economy, economic security, and weaponised interdependence, dual-use items are treated as potential geoeconomic leverage. Vulnerability areas are identified through the analysis of trade in value added, intra-industry trade, and strategic import dependencies. The findings show a growing share of Chinese value added in V4 final demand and exports, reinforcing structural dependence in machinery, automotive, electronics, optics, and chemicals. On the one hand, weak comparative advantages and external vulnerabilities limit the V4’s resilience and position in global value chains. On the other hand, however, the intensity of the intra-industry trade suggests untapped potential for upgrading domestic production of dual-use goods. Recommendations include strengthening national and EU capabilities in dual-use clusters, regionally coordinated development of R&D ecosystems, leveraging knowledge-intensive services, prioritising European content, and improving analytics to map critical nodes, as well as direct and indirect dependencies.