CONVERGENCE OR DIVERGENCE OF REGIONS OF MIDDLE-EAST EUROPE AFTER THEIR ACCESSION TO THE EUROPEAN UNION
Keywords:
Economic convergence, divergence, spatial trend, spatial autocorrelation, spatial econometric model.Abstract
The work presents the analysis of per capita GDP in the selected area of eight European countries (the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia) in two periods: 2000-2004 and 2005-2011, i.e. before and after their accession to the European Union. It was expected that accession to the EU would improve living conditions and would raise the pace of steady economic growth rate in those countries. It would enable the diminution of differences of income levels in the countries. The aim of the analysis is to investigate whether the phenomena of convergence or divergence of per capita GDP across the established regions according to the European classification system NUTS-2 have occurred in the periods considered. In the investigation some methods and models offered by the spatial statistics and econometrics will be used. Choosing the methodology was motivated by the hypothesis that the growth rate of any region is connected with the growth rates of its neighbors. Thus, the conception of economic convergence of the regions of the established area in the context of spatial connections is analyzed. The spatial trends and spatial autocorrelation of the GDP are considered. The changes in time of the spatial tendencies and dependence are analyzed as well. The main tools used in the investigation are the spatial cross-sectional data models and the spatial panel models of β-convergence. The data related to the established regions was taken from the database released by Eurostat (http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/).
Downloads
References
Anselin L. (1988), Spatial Econometrics: Methods and Models, Dordrecht, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Arbia G. (2006), Spatial Econometrics. Statistical Foundations and Applications to Regional Convergence, Springer-Verlag Berlin Haidelberg.
Bivand S. R., Pebesma E. J., Gómez-Rubio V. (2008), Applied Spatial Data Analysis with R, Springer Science+Busines Media, LLC.
Bode E., Rey S. J. (2006), The Spatial Dimension of Economic Growth and Convergence, „Papers in Regional Science”, vol. 2, no. 85, ss. 171-176.
Boyle G. E., McCarthy T. G. (1997), A simple measure of β-convergence, „Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistic”, vol. 2, no. 59, ss. 257-264.
Górna J., Górna K. (2013a), Przestrzenne i przestrzenno-czasowe tendencje i zależności PKB w wybranych krajach europejskich w latach 2001–2009, „Acta Universitatis Lodziensis. Folia Oeconomica”, vol. 293, Łódź, ss. 143-154.
Górna J., Górna K.(2013b), Analiza konwergencji gospodarczej wybranych regionów Europy w latach 1995-2009, „Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals”, vol. 30, Warszawa, ss. 169-185.
Górna J., Górna K., Szulc E. (2013a), Analysis of β-Convergence. From Traditional Cross-Section Model to Dynamic Panel Model, „Dynamic Econometric Models”, Nicolaus Copernicus University, vol. 13, Wydawnictwo UMK, Toruń, ss. 127-144.
Górna J., Górna K., Szulc E. (2013b), A β-convergence analysis of European regions. Some re-specifications of the traditional model, „Proceedings of the 7th Professor Aleksander Zelias International Conference on Modelling and Forecasting of Socio-Economic Phenomena”, www.konferencjazakopianska.pl.
Górna, J., Górna K., Szulc E. (2014), A β-convergence Analysis of European Regions. Some Re-specifications of the Traditional Model (extended version), forthcoming.
Kusideł E. (2013), Konwergencja gospodarcza w Polsce i jej znaczenie w osiąganiu celów polityki spójności, Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego, Łódź.
LeSage J., Pace R. K. (2009), Introduction to Spatial Econometrics, Champion & Hall/CRC, New York.
Rey S. J., Montouri B. D. (1999), US Regional Income Convergence: A Spatial Econometric Perspective, "Regional Studies", vol.33. 2, ss. 143-156.
Rey S. J., Le Gallo J. (2009), Spatial Analysis of Economic Convergence, (w:) Mills T. C., Patterson K. (red.), Palgrave Handbook of Econometrics, Volume II: Applied Econometrics. Palgrave MacMillan, New York, ss. 1251-1290.
Suchecki B. (red.) (2010), Ekonometria Przestrzenna. Metody i Modele Analizy Danych Przestrzennych, Wydawnictwo C.H. Beck, Warszawa.
Szulc E. (2009), Modeling of Dynamic Spatial Processes, „Dynamic Econometric Models”, Nicolaus Copernicus University, vol. 9, Wydawnictwo UMK, Toruń, ss. 17-26.
