India’s Policy Towards Bangladesh in the Context of the China–India Rivalry

Cezary Pawlak; Naimul Hamid Riaz

doi:10.18778/1427-9657.14.2.08

Authors

Cezary Pawlak University of Chittagong https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4295-7746
Naimul Hamid Riaz University of Chittagong https://orcid.org/0009-0001-1765-3388

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18778/1427-9657.14.2.08

Keywords:

Northeast India, Siliguri Corridor, Malacca Dilemma, Causal Loop Diagram (CLD)

Abstract

Niniejszy artykuł analizuje politykę Indii wobec Bangladeszu przez pryzmat rywalizacji między Chinami a Indiami i dowodzi, że interwencjonistyczna, hegemoniczna oraz ukształtowana ideologicznie polityka zagraniczna Indii przyczyniła się do wzrostu nastrojów antyindyjskich w Bangladeszu. Wykorzystując model pętli przyczynowo-skutkowej, artykuł wiąże poparcie Indii dla autokratycznego reżimu, domniemane zaangażowanie służb wywiadowczych, asymetrię handlową, spory dotyczące zasobów wodnych oraz nierówne warunki tranzytu z narastającym niezadowoleniem społecznym i reakcją polityczną w Bangladeszu.
Autor argumentuje, że polityczny przełom w Bangladeszu w sierpniu 2024 r. przyspieszył strategiczną dywersyfikację relacji Dhaki w kierunku Chin, a w mniejszym stopniu także Pakistanu, co z kolei zwiększyło obawy Indii dotyczące bezpieczeństwa, zwłaszcza w odniesieniu do północno-wschodnich regionów kraju oraz Korytarza Siliguri. Artykuł pokazuje również, w jaki sposób Chiny wykorzystały strategiczne położenie Bangladeszu, finansowanie infrastruktury oraz współpracę związaną z portami do rozszerzenia swoich wpływów regionalnych, intensyfikując tym samym szerszą rywalizację mocarstw.
Główny wniosek jest taki, że napięcia między Bangladeszem a Indiami nie są odosobnionymi sporami, lecz elementem samonapędzającego się cyklu nieufności i eskalacji. Artykuł zaleca przyjęcie przez Indie bardziej wyważonego i nieinterwencjonistycznego podejścia, opartego na poszanowaniu suwerenności, sprawiedliwej współpracy gospodarczej, uczciwym podziale zasobów wodnych oraz wzajemnie korzystnych rozwiązaniach tranzytowych, aby ograniczyć ryzyko dalszej destabilizacji regionu.

Author Biographies

Cezary Pawlak, University of Chittagong

Lt. Col. (res.) Cezary Pawlak, PhD – social sciences/security studies, specialist in crisis management, trend identification, threat forecasting, impact assessment, and hybrid operations, including security management systems. Many years of work in the Ministry of National Defence in line positions as well as staff roles from tactical to strategic levels. Worked in NATO structures. Participant in four combat missions, the author of many scientific and journalistic publications as well as a number of lectures on crisis operations, forecasting, state resilience, and hybrid activities. Currently a university lecturer in the Piotrkowska Academy in Piotrków Trybunalski, Poland.
Naimul Hamid Riaz, University of Chittagong

Naimul Hamid Riaz, Bachelor of Laws, Chittagong Independent University, Chittagong, Bangladesh, MA in international and political studies, specialisation: conflict management and negotiations, University of Lodz, Poland. Present: M.Phil student/researcher, department of international relations, University of Chittagong, Chittagong, Bangladesh.

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